October 31st. North London Derby. Predictions.
This Saturday will once again see another North London derby. A fixture which is one of my favourite throughout the year and yet at the same time one that I dread the most. For the last 10 years, Arsenal have been the favourite to win the derby which means that anything less than this feels like a victory for Spurs.
This Saturday’s derby promises to be one of the most interesting in a long time. Both teams have strong squads and have kicked off their seasons with a set of impressive results and performances. Every Arsenal or Spurs fan I speak to at the moment has been looking forward to this game for weeks.
So what will happen at the Emirates? My prediction is a 2-2 draw.
Why have I gone for a 2-2 draw? We’ll I’m glad you asked. There are two main reasons. First despite having a weakened squad due to the loss of key players such as Defoe, Modric and Lennon and losing to Stoke, Spurs always play out of their ksin in the derby. I believe this will pull them through to perform well at the Emirates.
Second, although I believe Arsenal should win, particulary as they are in great form and some players have hit good form (such as van Persie, Fabregas and Arshavin), they still have an uncanny ability to make stupid mistakes and throw away wins.
Therefore with these two factors in mind, I’ve opted for a 2-2 draw. With a controversial penalty decision not given. Just for fun.
Obviously though, I’m praying for an Arsenal win. Cos that would be superb. Adm defintley not a loss as that would result in at least a year of over the top smugness from certain Spurs fans.
James
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Response and Prediction by Simon
I have to say, I find James’ prediction above to be a smidgin generous. I have the sneaking suspicion he is playing it safe going for a draw, but there we go. If I’m honest, I’m not particularly optimistic this year, which is odd given Spurs have done so well so far. Here are some reasons for my lack of optimism:
1. Defoe is missing: while on paper Tottenham have three other international quality strikers, I still think Defoe will be a big loss. Keane’s form has been largely abysmal this year, other than that game where he scored four (obviously). In most games he has simply disappeared, which is worrying. Crouch is great, but he needs a lively strike partner, and Keane is not especially lively right now. As for Pavlyuchenko, he looks about as confident as, well, <this little creature> . With Defoe playing, we would have beaten Stoke; as it was, we didn’t even score.
2. Other Injuries: With Modric and now Lennon missing, as well as Defoe, I wonder where that little spark of magic you need in these games will come from. Bentley? Perhaps, but unlikely. Kranjcar? Well, I’m sceptical. Those three (Modric, Lennon, Defoe) are really the three quickest, most inventive players we have. Without any of them playing the role of catalyst, I’m not sure from where we will get any flashes of genius.
3. Last two performances against top clubs: Excusing the win against Liverpool on the first day of the season, we haven’t looked great against the other top clubs this year. OK, so we’ve only played two others, but in both the Man. Utd and Chelsea games we gave quite disappointing performances. We will need to play very well to get a win, or even a draw, on Saturday.
4. A hunch: I just have a hunch we’ll have a tough day on Saturday. I think the Stoke game may have shaken our confidence, even though we beat Everton midweek. That Stoke game was the first time this year when we’ve been beaten when we should have won. That may mean a tiny bit of insecurity may start to slip in for us, which could be fatal against the Gunners.
All that said, then, my prediction for Saturday is 2-1 to Arsenal.
But I will be delighted if I am proven wrong.
Simon
Tags: Arsenal, Arshavin, Defoe, Fabregas, Lennon, North London Derby, Redknapp, Spurs, Tottenham Hotspur, Wenger
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October 29, 2009 at 11:53 pm
Good post James and Simon, and I would have to say you both make valid points. Being a Spurs fan myself I would love to finally see us beat Arsenal in the league given that we haven’t done so for, well, quite a while (wasn’t it when Sherwood and Iversen scored??). Normally I am cautiously optimistic approaching the North London derby and this season is no exception. That said, last week’s defeat against Stoke was a bit of a wake-up call for us because even though we dominated for large periods we, as Simon pointed out, really lacked a cutting edge without Defoe, Modric and then Lennon once he hobbled off. I am, however, intrigued to see if Bentley will play in Lennon’s absence. He played well on Wednesday and does have a point to prove, both to Redknapp and indeed Arsenal, and a repeat of his wondergoal last season at the Emirates, which he is quite capable of doing on a regular basis, would go down very well. I might also that add I still think we’re looking dodgy defensively and having a different centre-back pairing each week just does not help. I fear the talents of Fabregas, Arshavin and Van Persie in particular may further expose this weakness.
As for Arsenal, I must say I have been very impressed with them season bar the odd game. They seem to be scoring for fun at the Emirates and on their day they can beat the best in Europe. They do have weaknesses, which Simon pointed out well, and if Spurs can prey on them as West Ham did in the second half of their game on last weekend then we have a chance. I also think their goalkeeping position is quite weak, which may prove to be decisive come Saturday lunchtime.
Taking this all into account, I predict that we’ll see some goals with Arsenal marginally getting the better of five-goal thriller. I just think Spurs missing their key players, together with our defensive shortcomings, will prove our downfall. I just hope I am proved wrong…
October 29, 2009 at 11:55 pm
May I just make a correction, when I was talking about Arsenal’s weaknesses I was referring to the comments made by James, not Simon.
October 30, 2009 at 12:01 am
Thank you Tim, interesting thoughts.
So, so far two Spurs fans are predicting an Arsenal win, and the Arsenal fan is predicting a draw. Interesting.
October 30, 2009 at 12:06 am
And thank you for the clarification Tim, I was very confused for a minute.
October 30, 2009 at 8:36 am
10-0 to Spurs. Half the Arsenal team will contract swine flu during the game, from a beach ball that has been tossed onto the pitch by an infected Gooner fan. Wenger will end up in goal and there will be constant cries to his defensive team mates… “er i didn’t see it…er” (no change there Arsene)as each beautifully struck ball wallops against the back of the net. Bentley will score an 80 yard over head kick with his back turned to the Arsenal end (of course…but i just wanted everyone to see it clearly in their minds eye)Even Pavylechenko will get a couple from the bench (whilst still on the bench… in between sobbing and drawing pictures of Mary in a willow tree, murmering “i didn’t do it she’s my friend”. And finally Keane will miss four penalties as he tries to head them in from the spot… then score on the rebounds in such spectyacular fashion the back of the net actually bursts open. Arsene Wenger will actually have parts of him knocked off by the sheer power of the strikes. All the other Arsenal players become inneffective as they roll around continuosly in the Spurs penalty area claiming penalties…even though no one else was around them.. There that should be about right don’t you agree?
October 30, 2009 at 8:50 am
Did you smoke pot for breakfast this morning, Simon?
October 30, 2009 at 9:12 am
Ok, Well, reading these predictions was very interesting and fair either way, I believe. However, far too long winded. Therefore, my prediction and reason will be far shorter.
There will not be a draw at the Gunners; I think it will be 2-1 either way as despite Arsenal being more on form than spurs, this premiership has still, nonetheless, been somewhat had surprising results.
We’ll see
October 30, 2009 at 9:53 am
Ok, here we go. So as a neutral I am going to be as honest as I can be. Spurs are crap Arsenal will win!! Ha, no only joking. However, I do feel that The Arsenal will win on Saturday, I predict 3-1. Arsenal are in fine form and are very impressive at home this season, Spurs I feel are on the slide slightly and are maybe having a mini wobble, and no Defoe or Lennon is massive.
3-1 !
October 30, 2009 at 12:02 pm
Spurs 2-1 Arsenal. 88th minute winner from Ledley King to send the away fans into raptures!!!
October 30, 2009 at 6:02 pm
As an Arsenal fan i’m slighted concerned as always. My head says Arsenal should win, they’re playing well at home and scoring tons of goals and Spurs are missing there main creative threats and i’m not sure I can see them scoring. Howvever, its never that simple in these games.
I reckon a draw. Arsenal will be winning but get increasingly nervous and conceed late. 2-2.
October 31, 2009 at 3:53 pm
Get in! Get in! Get in!
November 1, 2009 at 9:48 pm
Way off with the predictions. Arsenal are scoring over 4 a game at home. I would never bet against them. I think Spurs missed Modric’s flair in midfield.
Arsenal won it by 3, but the bigger story was the level of thier dominance. If they can stop trowing stupid points away, it will be a good season…
November 2, 2009 at 12:20 pm
Agreed. Thats a big if though. In my opinion (which is no doubt biased) I think the way Arsenal have played they have deserved to win every one of their games so far in the Prem.
November 3, 2009 at 3:39 pm
Nearly got it right, just wasn’t sure if Arsenal could keep the clean sheet. But hey, they did!
November 3, 2009 at 3:50 pm
I think you should post on Liverpool, Dave. I’d be interested in your thoughts on Rafa.